481
FXUS64 KMAF 101127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS BETWEEN 104-108, LOCALLY NEARING
110) WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A TOUCH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES BECOME LOW TO MEDIUM AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, BROAD RIDGING
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE BIG STORYLINE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S AND ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK WILL BE COMMONPLACE BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. LOCATIONS IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WILL TEND TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 104-108 DEGREES, WITH SOME AREAS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEARING 110 DEGREES. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TOO BORDERLINE FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORY
PRODUCTS, WE NEVERTHELESS WANT TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED TO DRINK PLENTY
OF WATER AND BE AWARE OF SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS, ESPECIALLY IF WORKING
OR SPENDING A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BESIDES THE HEAT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE YIELD LOW (10-30%) POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
THE PECOS AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. FOR TOMORROW, THE BEST
CHANCES (20-40%) WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THOUGH A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OFF THE
DRYLINE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY
<10%). A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG (PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL), WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, DAMPENING THE
RIDGE AND YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MORE ON THAT IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH IT SHALL REACH BEFORE MIXING OUT. NEVERTHELESS, THE TROUGH
DAMPENS A RIDGE ALOFT, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST, WHILE
THOSE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WARM INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST
TEXAS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, THE COLD FRONT, AND FROM
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10-20%,
20-30% OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION, THEN 40-60% OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
FRIDAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNING TO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.
UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AGAIN BRINGS 10-40% RAIN CHANCES
TO AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD A TOUCH FURTHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS DO RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW TO MEDIUM (15-60%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROGGED TO SPAN AREAWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID
80S TO MID 90S, ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1-2" (OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE), THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN
WORTHY OF MONITORING GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS, BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF MAF AND FST. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S AT PEQ AND INK FOR TS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN STORMS DEVELOPING NEARBY (ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR HOB, CNM, OR FST AS WELL). SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, WITH SOME LIGHT
GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 104 73 106 73 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN 98 74 100 75 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 103 72 104 73 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 95 72 95 71 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 102 69 103 69 / 20 20 0 10
MARFA 96 63 96 62 / 30 20 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 72 100 74 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 98 72 100 73 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 103 73 104 74 / 20 20 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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