369
FXUS64 KMAF 110523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES (HIGHS BETWEEN 104-108, LOCALLY NEARING
110) WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A TOUCH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES BECOME LOW TO MEDIUM AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DECIMETERS MAINTAIN HOT
TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT SAID, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK ARE TO BE COMMONPLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
MANY SPOTS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND THE RIO GRANDE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES, WITH SOME
SPOTS ALONG THE BORDER (INCLUDING THE BIG BEND) SEEING
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 110 DEGREES. WHILE TEMPERATURES DON'T QUITE
MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE
IMPORTANCE OF DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS (WATER AND ELECTROLYTE
DRINKS) AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS UNDER SHADE OR INSIDE A
BUILDING WITH AIR CONDITIONING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO
WORK OUTSIDE OR SPEND A LOT OF TIME OUTDOORS.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WEATHER STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE THE
CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE YIELD LOW (10-30%) CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY TOMORROW, CHANCES
(20-40%) MAINLY RESIDE IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW). FARTHER TO THE EAST, WINDS BECOME BREEZY
(15-20 MPH SUSTAINED) IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING BETTER ACCESS TO COOLER GULF AIR WITH THIS PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY, GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS, LOW 100S
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT SATURDAY BUT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT WILL GREATLY DETERMINE THE HIGHS
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT NBM IS TRYING
TO HAVE IT'S CAKE AND EAT IT TOO; SHOWING HOT TEMPERATURES LIKE
THE FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE, WHILE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LIKE THE
FRONT DOES ARRIVE. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION MAY BE THE FRONT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA IF NOT ON IT'S OWN THEN WITH AN ASSIST FROM
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION IN THE TX PANHANDLE. EVEN IF IT DOESN'T
QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH THE LIKELY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES SO THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT BUILDS SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING WHAT HAS BEEN A MILD
START TO THE SUMMER SO FAR. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE BIG BEND BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF MAF AND FST THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CLOUDS REACHING EITHER TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, THOUGH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS (AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MAF AND
FST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 106 72 97 70 / 0 10 10 20
DRYDEN 99 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 104 72 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 96 70 88 67 / 0 0 30 20
HOBBS 103 68 93 68 / 0 10 10 0
MARFA 96 62 91 59 / 30 20 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 99 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 100 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 104 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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