806
FXUS64 KMAF 110735
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS BETWEEN 104-108, LOCALLY NEARING 110) WILL
BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A TOUCH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES BECOME LOW TO MEDIUM AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. CLOSER TO HOME, LEE TROUGHING IS
EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS, ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET, HAS HELPED
KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS BREEZY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY'S FORECAST IS LARGELY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S. HOT TEMPERATURES (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND ABOVE 100
DEGREES) PERSIST AREAWIDE UNDER A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS BETWEEN 104-108 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON IN THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN NEARING 110 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS
(PARTICULARLY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHERE WE HAVE 20-40% POPS).
WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SOME HAIL (GENERALLY UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS). HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THIS EVENING, A FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA,
BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR THE CWA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MAY TRACK INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES TEND TO BE LOW (10-20%). LOWS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (LOW-TO-MID 90S IN GENERAL).
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS RAIN CHANCES TO AGAIN INCREASE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING (20-40% CHANCES).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BROUGHT ALONG
BY A DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULT IN ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STEERS WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT, SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO FRIDAY'S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND ALONG
THE RIVER VALLEYS, WHILE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 90S FOR ALMOST
EVERYONE ELSE. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. WHERE THE
FRONT ENDS UP WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES. FOR NOW, NBM SHOWS THE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING, THEN A REINFORCING PUSH
FINALLY ALLOWS IT TO CLEAR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SOLUTION, TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES MAY VARY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S WITHIN OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH 90S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE ADVANCING FRONT BRINGS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW 90S LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
SPAN AREAWIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE WESTERN US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF MAF AND FST THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CLOUDS REACHING EITHER TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, THOUGH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS (AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MAF AND
FST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 75 96 74 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 106 73 97 70 / 10 0 20 20
DRYDEN 100 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 103 73 96 71 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 96 72 88 68 / 10 0 30 20
HOBBS 103 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA 96 63 91 61 / 50 10 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 74 94 73 / 0 10 10 0
ODESSA 100 73 94 73 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 104 74 96 72 / 10 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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