461
FXUS64 KMAF 261708
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP TO 115 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, KEEPING MUCH OF
THE REGION WITHIN AN INTENSE THERMAL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30-34C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 95-100 DEGREES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND 110-115 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WHILE WE AREAS FURTHER NORTH AREN'T IN
THE ADVISORY, IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT WITH HIGHS UP TO 105.
A DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED, HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
ALONG A SEMINOLE TO WINK TO ALPINE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, DEEPLY MIXED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND LARGE SUB-CLOUD
INVERTED-V PROFILES, THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES SATURDAY WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EXTENSIVELY OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
BREAK IN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WITH TEMPERATURES "COOLING" BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE,
PEAKING MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK WEST LATE IN THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND HELPING TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND THE HEAT TO RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS AT TERMINALS ON THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND LEA COUNTY INTO PERMIAN BASIN ARE FROM
23Z-04Z THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR
TERMINALS ON THE SE NM PLAINS AND INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR
TERMINALS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM
23Z-04Z. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE BELOW 15
KNOTS 07Z-10Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD FOR TERMINALS ON THE SE NM
PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS, WHILE REMAINING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR TERMINALS ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
STOCKTON PLATEAU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 103 75 101 / 30 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 74 104 75 103 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 102 73 101 / 20 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 71 93 72 92 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS 71 102 71 101 / 20 20 20 10
MARFA 65 95 64 94 / 20 30 20 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 101 75 99 / 30 20 20 0
ODESSA 75 101 75 99 / 30 20 20 0
WINK 75 104 75 103 / 30 20 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
PRESIDIO VALLEY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...94
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