399
FXUS64 KMAF 262245
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP TO 115 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER WITH A LOW (10% TO 30%) CHANCE OF STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS RISE TO 100F-105F,
105F-110F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND RIO GRANDE BASIN.
LIKE YESTERDAY, 110F-115F READINGS ARE INDICATED FOR THE BIG BEND.
110F+ HIGHS IN THE BIG BEND ALONG WITH HIGHS ABOVE 95F-100F FOR THE
MARFA PLATEAU AND 105F HIGHS WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN HAVE PROMPTED HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR THOSE REGIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAKE
SURE TO TAKE PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NEAR SURFACE LIFT
PROVIDED BY HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND STRENGTHENING LEE
TROUGHING DURING THE DAY WILL AGAIN INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE EDGE OF A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN MX PLATEAU WILL ALSO FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALOFT
TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SPC HAS AGAIN OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF EDDY COUNTY IN A MRGL RISK.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS, SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DCAPE ABOVE 1000
J/KG, AND LOW RH IN THE LOWER LEVELS PRIOR TO ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY PROVIDING
MORE INSTABILITY, CONSIDERABLE DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 70 MPH LIKE THAT
WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING IN
HEAVIEST STORM CORES GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH PWATS STAYING IN THE 1.25" TO 1.50" RANGE DUE TO
CONTINUAL HUMID, SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. FOLLOWING DIMINISHING
STORMS LATE EVENING, PERSISTENT 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO TERRELL COUNTY EAST OF LEE TROUGHING KEEP
LOWS IN THE 75F-80F RANGE. 70-75F LOWS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE LEE
TROUGHING AND 65F-70F FOR HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
DRIER, THINNER AIR ALLOW GREATER OVERNIGHT COOLING.
TOMORROW FEATURES SIMILAR HIGHS AS TODAY, AND HAZARDOUS HEAT
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.
HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO A DRYLINE AND DEVELOPING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MORE OF LEA COUNTY AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT CONCERNS EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE SE NM PLAINS APART FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATION NORTHERN GUADALUPES. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LLJ TOMORROW NIGHT KEEP
LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HOT AND DRY WEATHER UNDER RIDGING
WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A MID TO UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, WE ARE
EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER. THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
GRADUALLY STEP DOWN OUT OF THE LOW 100S AND INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 80S. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-
60%) STAYING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, BUT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LOW
RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. TEMPERATURES
STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
START TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO INCH BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN RETURN FLOW, WITH
WINDS STAYING ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY, W/BASES ~ 6-9 KFT AGL.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 103 75 102 / 30 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 75 104 74 102 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 102 74 101 / 20 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 72 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS 71 102 71 100 / 20 20 20 10
MARFA 65 95 64 93 / 20 30 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 101 75 100 / 30 20 20 0
ODESSA 75 101 75 99 / 30 20 20 0
WINK 75 104 75 103 / 30 20 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-
CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
PRESIDIO VALLEY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99
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