352
FXUS64 KMAF 270705
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
205 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP TO 115 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. MAINTAINING A REGIME OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, HELPING MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE DANGEROUS
HEAT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH IN THE 28C-
32C RANGE, TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. HIGHS UP TO 105 ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 115 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTENSE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS EXCEEDING 50 MPH
GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY ELEVATED, REMAINING THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. LITTLE IF ANYTHING
CHANGES SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHAVED OFF THE
DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LOWERING OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA
EARLY TO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REORIENTS AND BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BREAK FROM THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE
WITH HIGHS PROGGED TO DROP BACK TOWARD NORMAL (LOW TO MID 90S) FOR
LATE JUNE. MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING TOWARD 1.5" (NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JUNE). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGITS AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR THE
4TH OF JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN RETURN FLOW, WITH
WINDS STAYING ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY, W/BASES ~ 6-9 KFT AGL.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 103 75 102 75 / 10 10 20 10
CARLSBAD 104 74 103 74 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 102 74 101 74 / 10 10 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 93 71 92 71 / 0 20 20 20
HOBBS 102 72 101 71 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA 95 64 93 63 / 20 20 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 101 75 100 75 / 10 20 20 20
ODESSA 101 75 100 75 / 20 20 20 20
WINK 104 75 103 75 / 20 20 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHISOS BASIN-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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