397
FXUS64 KMAF 280356
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP TO 115 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE WORST OF THE HEAT WILL TEMPORARILY BE BEHIND US THIS WEEKEND AS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHS
TODAY RISE INTO THE 100-105F RANGE IN THE LOWLANDS WHILE HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE 90F- 95F RANGE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH A SMALL
CHANCE (<20%) OF HIGHS APPROACHING 105F-110F FOR THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY. STILL, PROLONGED 105F-110F TEMPERATURES (110F-115F AGAIN
PRESENT OVER THE BIG BEND) AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS PROMPTED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THIS
REGION TODAY, INCLUDING BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK. PRACTICE PROPER
HEAT SAFETY AND SEEK SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE IF OUTDOORS. EVEN WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (>1.25"), SO IT WILL STILL FEEL HUMID AND DIFFICULT
TO COOL OFF OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT. PROLONGED
HIGHER HUMIDITY DESPITE CAPPING AGAIN YIELDS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
10% TO 30% STORM CHANCES OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU FROM HEATED
ELEVATED TERRAIN INTERACTING WITH LEE TROUGHING. BREAKDOWN OF
RIDGING AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN FORECASTING LOCATION OF STORMS. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU AND STOCKTON PLATEAU AS PASSING
DISTURBANCES FOCUSING LIFT AND MOISTURE INTERACT WITH NEAR SURFACE
FEATURES. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO PERMIAN BASIN
IN A MRGL RISK TODAY. DCAPE AGAIN RISES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS, WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOW HIGHER RH THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. THEREFORE, STRONGEST STORMS CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS (70 MPH OR MORE IN LONGER-LIVED STORMS), ALTHOUGH
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SMALL HAIL WITH FLASH FLOODING IN HEAVIEST
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING
LATER TODAY AGAIN INCREASES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN A LLJ FROM
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING AND KEEPING
LOWS IN THE 70F-75F RANGE, 75F-80F IN WARMER SPOTS AND 60F-65F FOR
MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
TOMORROW SAME TREND: "COOLER" AIR TEMPERATURES BUT WE KEEP THE
MOISTURE. IF ANYTHING IT WILL FEEL JUST AS HUMID AS TODAY AND HEAT
STRESS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS PWATS AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY OF OVERALL
AIR COLUMN REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST WEST OF THE
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TOMORROW, SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT ONLY RISE INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE IN
THE LOWLANDS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY AND TERRELL COUNTY, WITH 110F-115F
READINGS RESTRICTED TO THE BIG BEND. AS A RESULT, HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY ONLY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST RIO GRANDE VALLEYS TOMORROW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLACEMENT OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN SUGGEST HIGHEST CHANCES OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE SE NM
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND STEERING FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. LOWS
CHANGE LITTLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PRESIDIO VALLEY AS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. PWATS AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING APPARENT OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN
BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN
US BY MONDAY AND A RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US. WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN MORE MOISTURE, BUT
BETTER OVERALL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40-70% FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WITH
LOWER (10-40%) CHANCES TO THE NORTH. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY
AS COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, THOUGH AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN NEARLY AREAWIDE. FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BIG BEND AND OTHER LOW
DESERT AREAS.
WEDNESDAY SEES ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-10 AND FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
WOULD HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST. THE RAIN COOLED SPOTS, PARTICULARLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 90F. A MONSOON-LIKE
PATTERN TAKES HOLD TO END NEXT WEEK AS LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES
HOLD ON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT REMAINS MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100F.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STORMS.
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING STORMS IN TAFS DUE TO LOW (10% TO 30%)
CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS AND UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF
STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR
TERMINALS ON THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS FROM
BEGINNING OF PERIOD THROUGH 01Z-06Z, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WINDS FOR
TERMINALS ON THE SE NM PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS DECREASE
BELOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS 06Z-10Z SUNDAY AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN RETURN FLOW, WITH
WINDS STAYING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
THE LLJ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, W/BASES ~ 5-9 KFT AGL. CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 102 76 100 / 10 20 10 10
CARLSBAD 75 103 74 100 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN 76 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 75 101 74 97 / 10 20 20 60
GUADALUPE PASS 72 92 70 90 / 20 20 20 10
HOBBS 72 101 72 97 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA 65 93 63 90 / 20 30 40 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 97 / 20 20 20 30
ODESSA 76 100 75 97 / 20 20 20 40
WINK 76 103 75 100 / 20 20 20 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99
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