515
FXUS64 KMAF 281142
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS NEAR
110 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION WITH A WEEK OF
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO "COOLER" TEMPERATURES AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 592 DAM CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL MOTION OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEPLY MIXED
PROFILES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 110 EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
WHILE CAPPING WILL BE STOUT, LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG A THETA-E
AXIS FROM SEMINOLE TO MONAHANS AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED AGAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING LEADING TO A
WARM, BREEZY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 100
DEGREES WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN U.S., DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, FOCUSED
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE, FALLING BACK TO NORMAL (MID
90S).
IT STILL APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK SO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND
590 DAM ARE UNLIKELY TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION. THIS MEANS WE
COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS AROUND FOR THE 4TH OF JULY SO STAY
TUNED TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISO TO SCT STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF MAF/FST, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT ISSUANCE TIME OF IMPACT TO TERMINALS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 76 100 74 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD 103 74 100 72 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 101 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 30
FORT STOCKTON 102 74 98 72 / 20 10 60 50
GUADALUPE PASS 92 70 90 68 / 10 20 10 10
HOBBS 102 72 97 69 / 10 20 30 20
MARFA 93 64 90 60 / 40 30 60 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 75 97 74 / 0 10 10 30
ODESSA 100 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 30
WINK 104 75 100 73 / 10 20 40 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...93
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