829
FXUS64 KMAF 290446
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS NEAR
110 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE FOCUS
MAINLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS. MUCH LIKE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, A STORM OR TWO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL DECAY OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING INTO THE 70S AS STEADY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN US. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BRINGS IN MORE
MOISTURE, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY, BUT HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH, MAINLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF BIG BEND. PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN AS THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MANY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S, BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY ENJOY RAIN COOLED 60S.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL COME TO AN END ON
TUESDAY, THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST US. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, SUPPLYING
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO EXTRA CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW YIELDS
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE BEING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE STANDARDS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A SIMILAR WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM INCHES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT,
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST.
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS (MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THURSDAY INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AT THIS
TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT COMPARED TO THIS
PAST WEEK DUE TO GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND ANY
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION, THE BEST CHANCES OF WHICH LOOK POSSIBLE KFST/KPEQ/KHOB
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL, ELEVATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD WILL BE
PRESENT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD, W/BASES RANGING FROM 4-5 KFT AGL IN THE EAST
TO 11-12 KFT AGL IN THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 20
CARLSBAD 103 75 99 72 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN 102 76 100 75 / 0 0 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 102 75 97 72 / 30 10 60 20
GUADALUPE PASS 92 71 89 68 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 102 73 97 70 / 10 10 30 0
MARFA 94 64 90 61 / 40 30 50 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 101 76 98 74 / 10 0 10 30
ODESSA 101 76 97 74 / 10 0 20 20
WINK 104 76 100 73 / 10 20 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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