860
FXUS64 KMAF 291725
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- HIGHS WILL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WARM
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
DOUBLE DIGITS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM.
- BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY, THROUGH THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. CHANCES
DROP OFF THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS, AND ANOTHER DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE A
WINDOW OPEN FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THOSE WHO PREFER COOLER WEATHER ARE IN LUCK, AS
THICKNESSES WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
DROPPING HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. IN FACT,
HIGHS THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL COME IN ONLY 4-6 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, AND 5-6 F COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL DROP ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES, COMING IN A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. STILL WARM, BUT NOT
AS HOT AS THE PAST WEEK. A FETCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ASSIST IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS WILL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH FLOW ALOFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND A RECURRING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS UNSEASONABLY WARM, THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WEDNESDAY, THICKNESSES REACH A NADIR, YIELDING THE COOLEST DAY THIS
FORECAST AS HIGHS LEVEL OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT TERM, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ASSIST IN
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEGINS NUDGING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, FORCING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH, AND REMOVING THE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTEAD, THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL PLATEAU ~ 4-6 F ABOVE
NORMAL. EVEN SO, THIS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE PAST WEEK, AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS...PRETTY TYPICAL FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL, OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OR DUSTY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR SCATTERED -TSRA AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT MAF (WHERE CHANCES LOOK THE LOWEST).
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY (SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10-15 KTS, UP
TO AROUND 20 KTS), BECOMING GUSTY AT ALL SITES AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 101 75 96 74 / 0 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 100 71 98 70 / 10 0 20 20
DRYDEN 100 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 93 72 / 50 20 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS 90 68 88 66 / 10 10 10 20
HOBBS 98 70 94 68 / 40 10 30 30
MARFA 90 61 87 60 / 50 40 60 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 93 73 / 10 20 10 10
ODESSA 98 74 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
WINK 101 73 96 72 / 30 10 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...13
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