111
FXUS64 KMAF 300440
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- MEDIUM (40-60%, UP TO 70%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE TROUGHING IS EVIDENT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF. OUR AREA IS MORE OR LESS CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. WHILE HIGHS TODAY STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S OR
JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MID-
TO-UPPER 90S BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE (80S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THANKS TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL BE MORE
COMMON FARTHER TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
WEEK OR SO, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER (MOST
NOTABLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WHERE CHANCES RANGE FROM 50-70%). A FEW
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS (20-40%
CHANCES FOR THESE LOCATIONS). ONCE AGAIN, THE BIG CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AS OUR FORECAST AREA
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE BIG BEND, MARFA PLATEAU, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, VAN
HORN CORRIDOR, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGIONS. OTHER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/DCAPE AND UP TO 20-30 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS MAY SHIFT FURTHER WEST BY SUNDAY BUT STILL
MAINTAINS AN INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE, BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE MIGHT INCREASE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON
SUNDAY TO BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-30%) ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 90S,
EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO
104 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING
BACK UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION, THE BEST CHANCES OF WHICH EVERYWHERE BUT KMAF, AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL, ELEVATED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD
WILL BE PRESENT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 6-9 KFT
AGL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 73 97 70 96 / 20 40 20 20
DRYDEN 76 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 94 72 92 / 20 30 10 40
GUADALUPE PASS 69 88 66 88 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS 70 93 68 91 / 30 30 30 20
MARFA 62 87 61 85 / 60 50 50 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 94 73 93 / 20 10 10 20
ODESSA 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 20
WINK 74 96 72 93 / 20 30 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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