045
FXUS64 KMAF 300845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY, THROUGH THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. CHANCES
DROP OFF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHS WILL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WARM
THROUGH AT LEAST INDEPENDENCE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CALIFORNIA, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
UNDER PERSISTENT AND PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A 40 KT LLJ
IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED, AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL CLOUD FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION TO YIELD YET ANOTHER MORNING
OF UNSEASONABLY WARM MINIMUMS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
ON A BETTER NOTE, FOR THOSE WHO PREFER COOLER WEATHER, THICKNESSES
CONTINUE DECREASING, AND TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE 2-3 F COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S, AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
ASSISTING IN THIS COOLER ENDEAVOR WILL BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUD
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES MAINTAINING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY, THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. WEDNESDAY, THIS SCENARIO REPEATS ITSELF,
ONLY HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S,
AVERAGING JUST A SKOSH BELOW NORMAL, AND MAKING WEDNESDAY THE
COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED, WHICH PORTENDS A
DRYING/WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BEGINS BUILDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
NUDGE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH, CLOSING THE WINDOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN,
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS
WILL PLATEAU SOME 5-7 F ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN SO, THIS WILL BE ON THE
LOWER END OF WHAT THE AREA EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK, AND LOOKS LIKE
GREAT WEATHER FOR FIRING UP THE PIT FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HAVE SHIFTED TO BAJA/SONORA,
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA, AND ANOTHER TREND
IN DECREASING THICKNESSES. THE EXTENDED ENDS WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
OROGRAPPHICALLY-DRIVEN EACH DAY AND INVOF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION, THE BEST CHANCES OF WHICH EVERYWHERE BUT KMAF, AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL, ELEVATED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE LLJ. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD
WILL BE PRESENT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 6-9 KFT
AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 98 70 96 69 / 40 20 20 10
DRYDEN 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 95 72 92 72 / 40 20 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS 88 66 88 66 / 30 20 20 10
HOBBS 94 68 91 67 / 40 30 20 10
MARFA 88 61 85 60 / 40 50 60 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 73 93 73 / 10 20 10 10
ODESSA 95 73 92 73 / 10 20 10 10
WINK 97 72 93 72 / 40 30 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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