633
FXUS64 KMAF 301842
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY, THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. CHANCES BECOME MORE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND
BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS SOME AREAS RECEIVED RAIN
YESTERDAY THAT ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE MORE RAIN TODAY, SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA WITH THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN MORE THAN LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY DRY. TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST IN THE 70S, BUT RAIN COOLED AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DIP INTO THE 60S.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) CONTINUE FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TOMORROW AS MANY LOCATIONS REACH THE 80S TO LOW 90S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANY PLACES
THAT DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN SETTLE INTO THE 70S. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COOL INTO THE 60S.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE THURSDAY (80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN), UPPER 90S AND
HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-40%) ALSO
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, OUR AREA ENDS UP ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS, ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, WOULD ONCE AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
(CURRENTLY 20-40%). THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN COOL
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. TEMPOS ADDED FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS DECREASING BY TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 93 69 94 / 40 30 20 30
DRYDEN 75 97 75 98 / 10 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 92 72 94 / 20 30 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 67 86 66 87 / 70 30 10 40
HOBBS 68 89 68 91 / 40 20 20 20
MARFA 61 84 60 86 / 40 60 30 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 92 73 95 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 73 91 73 94 / 20 10 10 10
WINK 73 92 72 94 / 40 30 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93
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