039
FXUS64 KMAF 011712
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THURSDAY, GENERALLY WEST
OF THE PECOS. CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE
OPTIMAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE
A WARM-UP THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS, AND A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING ON THE WEST
COAST, THE NET EFFECT OF WHICH WILL BE TO KEEP WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER CONTINUED AND PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TODAY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THURSDAY. FOR THOSE WHO LIKE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S, AVERAGING 1-2 F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST. ASSISTING
THE COOLDOWN WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST, REPLETE
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. KMAF RAOB CAME IN W/A PWAT OF 1.48",
WHICH IS JUST UNDER THE 95TH PERCENTILE, SO CONTINUED CONCERNS
W/CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY WINDS/FLASH FLOODING. ABUNDANT RAINFALL
WOULD BE NICE BEFORE FIREWORKS ON AND BEFORE INDEPENDENCE DAY.
TONIGHT, A 40 KT LLJ IS SET TO REDEVELOP, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ~ 4-6 F ABOVE
NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY, UNSEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST, OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF
FROM DAYTIME HEAT.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
BEGIN NOSING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN
INCREASING THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY, BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR SO. THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION FARTHER WEST, WITH BEST
CHANCES NATURALLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
WEST, PASSING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AROUND
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THEN, PEAKING ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY SOME 4-6 F ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FORECAST, TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL CENTER
SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWEST INVOF BAJA/SONORA, RESULTING IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN INDEPENDENCE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO PORTENDS A RATHER DRY
EXTENDED, WITH WHAT MEAGER CHANCES THERE ARE FAVORING OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN ACTIVITY INVOF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. IF THE RIDGE
CAN MEANDER FAR ENOUGH WEST NEXT WEEK, THIS MAY OPEN A WINDOW OR TWO
AS IMPULSES ROTATE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (SUNDAY
NIGHT?), BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO HANG A HAT ON AT THIS POINT, AND
WILL LIKELY CHANGE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH PEQ/INK BEING THE NEXT TERMINALS TO SEE IMPACTS BEGINNING THE
18Z HOUR. TEMPOS IN PLACE FOR EXPECTED TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS. WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. VFR REMAINS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 94 70 97 / 20 20 10 10
DRYDEN 75 97 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 93 72 96 / 10 20 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 66 86 67 88 / 20 40 10 10
HOBBS 68 91 68 94 / 20 30 10 0
MARFA 60 85 60 87 / 20 60 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 73 93 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 72 93 72 97 / 20 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93
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