946
FXUS64 KMAF 011840
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THURSDAY, GENERALLY WEST
OF THE PECOS. CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE
OPTIMAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE
A WARM-UP THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE TRANS PECOS BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. AS THIS BATCH DECAYS THIS AFTERNOON, A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A STORM OR TWO MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER SUNSET, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN COOLED SPOTS SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
60S WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST THAT DID NOT SEE RAIN FALL INTO THE 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAIN RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. JUST LIKE TODAY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAIN OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE 80S WITH 90S ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.
SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS
A RESULT OF THIS. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMONPLACE
FRIDAY, NEARING OR JUST OVERTAKING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN USUAL WARM
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE). SATURDAY WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER OVERALL THAN FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-40%) ALSO BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHICH WOULD IN TURN LEAD
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID, CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL AT THIS TIME (10-30%, UP TO 40% IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). OTHERWISE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH PEQ/INK BEING THE NEXT TERMINALS TO SEE IMPACTS BEGINNING THE
18Z HOUR. TEMPOS IN PLACE FOR EXPECTED TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS. WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. VFR REMAINS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 97 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 95 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN 75 97 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 93 72 96 / 20 30 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 87 67 89 / 0 30 10 30
HOBBS 68 91 68 94 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 61 85 60 88 / 20 40 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 94 74 96 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA 74 93 74 96 / 10 10 10 0
WINK 72 94 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93
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