939
FXUS64 KMAF 020149
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
849 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 847 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES SHIFT GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS THROUGH
THURSDAY. CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE OPTIMAL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE
A WARM-UP THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE TRANS PECOS BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN TO ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. AS THIS BATCH DECAYS THIS AFTERNOON, A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A STORM OR TWO MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER SUNSET, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN COOLED SPOTS SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
60S WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST THAT DID NOT SEE RAIN FALL INTO THE 70S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAIN RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. JUST LIKE TODAY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAIN OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE 80S WITH 90S ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.
SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS
A RESULT OF THIS. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMONPLACE
FRIDAY, NEARING OR JUST OVERTAKING THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN USUAL WARM
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE). SATURDAY WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER OVERALL THAN FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-40%) ALSO BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHICH WOULD IN TURN LEAD
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID, CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL AT THIS TIME (10-30%, UP TO 40% IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). OTHERWISE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR GENERALLY CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT LOCATIONS
WEST OF A KCNM, KPEQ, KFST LINE. WINDS BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 75 97 75 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 92 70 95 70 / 20 10 10 10
DRYDEN 96 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 72 93 72 / 60 20 30 0
GUADALUPE PASS 85 67 87 67 / 20 0 30 10
HOBBS 88 68 91 68 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA 83 61 85 60 / 60 20 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 92 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA 91 74 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
WINK 90 72 94 72 / 30 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...21
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