123
FXUS64 KMAF 021518
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WEST OF THE
PECOS THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL BE OPTIMAL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE A
WARM-UP ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A WARMUP AGAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA SOUTH THROUGH SOCAL, KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. TODAY, THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO START DEVELOPING WEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESSES AND A
CONSEQUENT WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, TODAY'S HIGHS, LIKE YESTERDAY'S, ARE SET TO COME IN
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE YESTERDAY
WAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AND A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE PECOS.
TONIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY, DESPITE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A 35 KT LLJ. THIS LLJ WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL-MIXED, COMBINING W/PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ~ 4-6 F ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING WEST, ADDING 2-3 F TO
TODAY'S HIGHS AND FURTHER RESTRICTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS. BY THIS TIME, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WANING, AND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO OROGRAPHICS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY, HIGHS WILL INCREASE FURTHER, TO AROUND 5 F OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CELL OR TWO IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS LOOK DRY. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, SETTLING
INTO BAJA/SONORA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, DECREASING THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LREF HAS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOCAL/ARIZONA, CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS AGAIN
AFTER MONDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY ROUNDING OUT THE EXTENDED SIMILAR TO
INDEPENDENCE DAY. W/THE RIDGE PARKED OUT WEST, RANDOM IMPULSES WILL
MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE, RESULTING IN MINIMAL
(BUT NON-ZERO) CHANCES OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN INVOF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL, ELEVATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A 35 KT RECURRING LLJ. PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUD WILL BE PRESENT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOONS, W/BASES ~
4.5-7 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 74 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 94 70 97 71 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 97 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 87 66 89 68 / 20 0 10 10
HOBBS 90 68 94 70 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 85 60 87 61 / 40 10 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 91 73 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 91 73 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 92 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page