922
FXUS64 KMAF 171728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAINFALL.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPAND FARTHER WEST INTO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING
TREND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY ALONG TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BORDER. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND BE THE CATALYST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GENERALLY LOWER (10-40%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS KEEP UP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, THUS WILL
KEEP THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MUCH
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, HI-RESOLUTION MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF
MUCH OF TODAY'S EXPECTED CONVECTION, BUT THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LIFT WILL BE BETTER.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY AS SOME AREAS WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY WHILE ISOLATED SPOTS MAY SEE 1-2
INCHES. HIGHS REACH INTO THE 80S TODAY WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND PART OF THE MORNING
ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES FURTHER WEST BRINGING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ONCE AGAIN, FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
SEVERE WEATHER TO NOT BE LIKELY.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE MID LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RAINFALL SHIFTS WESTWARD
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT PLAINS. AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES, RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN, LARGELY
DROPPING OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING. SATURDAY EVENING, RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 20-60% ACROSS THE REGION (ODDS
INCREASING WITH WESTWARD EXTENT). SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST AREAWIDE, WITH THE
BEST PROBABILITIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, 20-60% RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY (BEST ODDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN). RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1-2" ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN SOME OF AREAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN DURING OCCASIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOVERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE GRADUAL RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION,
TEMPERATURES RESPOND IN THE FORM OF A WARMING TREND. HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S (MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ADJACENT AREAS) TO LOW 90S. HIGHS IN THE 90S SLOWLY
GAIN MORE PROMINENCE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN NEAR AND ALONG BOTH THE RIO GRANDE
AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHALL RANGE IN THE 60S TO 70S, WITH 70S
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AROUND A LITTLE AFTER 18Z AT MAF BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN STORE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE, TS PROB30S WERE
IMPLEMENTED AT ALL SITES. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VIS/CIGS WITH STRONGER
VARIABLE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORM. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 69 90 69 / 60 10 40 20
CARLSBAD 92 70 95 69 / 20 20 50 40
DRYDEN 90 71 93 71 / 40 10 30 20
FORT STOCKTON 89 69 92 68 / 50 10 60 40
GUADALUPE PASS 85 66 86 65 / 40 20 70 50
HOBBS 88 66 91 66 / 30 40 50 40
MARFA 84 59 86 58 / 50 20 70 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 69 90 69 / 40 20 40 30
ODESSA 86 69 90 69 / 40 10 40 40
WINK 90 69 93 69 / 40 20 50 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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