515
FXUS64 KMAF 172300
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAINLY WEST OF THE
PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPAND FARTHER WEST INTO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING
TREND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN REMAINED CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS
MORNING BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE MATERIALIZED
OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BEHIND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND AN OVERALL
LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST CAMS
COMING ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN EDDY COUNTY INTO THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, MARFA PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF THE
BIG BEND. WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD STILL LEAD TO
VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PIVOT WESTWARD OVER THE VICINITY
OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CAMS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO PERSIST OR RE-DEVELOP INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHWEST
BASIN OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CWA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD STILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND PERHAPS RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT
FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO GOING TO RETURN BACK INTO THE 90S FOR
MOST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1-2" ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
SIGNALING A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. GIVEN SOME AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
MAY CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. THE THREAT ITSELF IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS PREVIOUS DAYS. BY MID NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE CREATING MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
DIRECT CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS ARE QUESTIONABLE OVERNIGHT, AS THINGS
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO BEGIN DRYING OUT TODAY. THUS, WE'LL LEAVE
THEM OUT ATTM. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING, AND
WILL AFFECT MAINLY KHOB. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. IT'S NOT OVER YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 68 88 69 90 / 20 30 20 30
CARLSBAD 69 92 69 92 / 30 50 40 30
DRYDEN 71 91 72 92 / 10 20 20 30
FORT STOCKTON 69 90 69 90 / 20 40 20 60
GUADALUPE PASS 66 84 65 83 / 20 60 50 70
HOBBS 66 88 66 89 / 30 40 50 30
MARFA 59 84 59 83 / 30 60 20 80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 87 70 89 / 20 40 40 30
ODESSA 69 87 69 89 / 20 40 40 30
WINK 69 91 69 91 / 30 30 30 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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