083
FXUS64 KMAF 180815
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
MAINLY FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ARE
MOVING TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, THOUGH A STRONGER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DURING THE DAY TODAY, HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) WILL BE WEST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FOR VERY ISOLATED SPOTS MAY REACH BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
WITH MUCH LESS FALLING FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THERE DOES STILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAIN. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DECREASES INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF
TODAY WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF TEXAS THIS
WEEK CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPARTING
FROM OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL THEN. SUNDAY EVENING,
RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 10-40%, WITH THE HIGHEST
ODDS OVERLAYING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER DOWN FURTHER OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. MODELS SUGGEST PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1-2" THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING, INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEPARTS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
TAKES ITS PLACE, PROMOTING A WARMING TREND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
80S IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S, THEN WARM A FEW
DEGREES FURTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
ENVELOPES MORE PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON ONWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S/70S SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 70 91 70 / 20 20 30 10
CARLSBAD 95 69 94 70 / 40 20 50 40
DRYDEN 94 72 94 73 / 20 10 40 10
FORT STOCKTON 93 70 91 70 / 50 10 70 20
GUADALUPE PASS 87 65 85 66 / 50 30 60 50
HOBBS 92 66 91 67 / 50 40 40 30
MARFA 87 60 85 60 / 60 30 70 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 70 90 71 / 40 30 50 10
ODESSA 90 70 90 70 / 40 20 50 10
WINK 94 70 93 70 / 40 20 40 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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