040
FXUS64 KMAF 190806
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
MAINLY FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE. BEFORE THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD,
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO MONDAY. TODAY, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 10-30%).
MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES RANGE BETWEEN 40-60% OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY, 20-50% RAIN CHANCES
LARGELY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE PECOS, WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE AGAIN REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1-2" THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE FACT
THAT MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN WORTHY OF
MONITORING. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
CLOUD COVERAGE, RAINFALL, AND THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE OVERALL
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES
WARM A FEW DEGREES FURTHER MONDAY, AS HIGHS IN THE 90S BECOME MORE
PROMINENT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
DAYTIME CONVECTION FROM MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO
THAT NIGHT OR AT LEAST BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL
US. A RETURN TO SUMMER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE COMING
WEEK. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE MOVE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY
MOVING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S AND INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES STAY TO THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE PATTERN STAYS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO MOVE UP SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN MANY SPOTS.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR CNM, PEQ, AND FST.
OCCASIONS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAPER DOWN BY SUNRISE, BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 90 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 92 70 92 71 / 40 20 30 10
DRYDEN 93 73 94 72 / 30 20 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 69 90 70 / 40 30 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS 82 65 82 66 / 60 30 40 20
HOBBS 89 66 90 68 / 30 20 10 10
MARFA 83 60 83 60 / 50 40 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 70 91 71 / 30 10 10 0
ODESSA 89 70 90 71 / 30 10 10 0
WINK 91 70 92 71 / 40 20 30 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95
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