198
FXUS64 KMAF 192337
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
MAINLY FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS IN WEST
TEXAS. A PRONOUNCED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) IS SHOWN SOUTH
OF VAN HORN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER MESOSCALE LOW LOOKS TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS. BOTH FEATURES WILL SUPPLY ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND REGION. GIVEN
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS, THIS WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY. THE 12Z MAF
SOUNDING SHOWED A RECORD DAILY PWAT (1.82"), SLOW STORM MOTIONS, AND
A VERY MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LIKE YESTERDAY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V PROFILES, SUFFICIENT DCAPE, ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY, AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT, THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THESE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STICK AROUND SIMILAR AREAS
AND IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH MONDAY BEING SLIGHTLY
WARMER.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. GIVEN SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SHALL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH BY
THE EVENING. BY MID WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE CREATING MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS MANY LOCATIONS HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S ONCE AGAIN
FOR ALL SITES FOR -TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CNM (WHERE CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOWEST IN THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING). AMENDMENTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 95 71 97 / 20 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 94 71 95 / 10 30 10 10
DRYDEN 74 96 73 98 / 40 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 92 70 94 / 30 30 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 66 83 65 85 / 20 50 10 10
HOBBS 68 92 68 95 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 61 84 60 87 / 40 50 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 92 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
ODESSA 71 92 71 95 / 20 10 0 0
WINK 71 94 71 97 / 20 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13
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