945
FXUS64 KMAF 201121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
MAINLY FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION AS AN
UPPER LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING WESTWARD. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW
CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES
OVERLAY THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. BETTER
(30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH THE EVENING, RAIN
CHANCES TAPER DOWN AND SHIFT WESTWARD, FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW.
TUESDAY, THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE STATE OF
SONORA. RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOME LIMITED TO AREAS
IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING DWINDLES. ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1-2" THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE MORE ROBUST CELLS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POCKET CHANGE SIZED HAIL.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LOSING ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION, UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHALL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW 90S. TONIGHT, LOWS SLIP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE WARMING
TREND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER 80S
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO RETURN ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DETAILS BELOW!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WARMING TREND CONTINUES AFTER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN US THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE WARM UP AND DRYING
OUT. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES HIT THE 100F MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE AT LEAST EARLIER THIS MONTH OR LATE JUNE. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WARMTH THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOVE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE WEEK AS PART OF THE
UPCOMING WARMING TREND.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST
ODDS AT CNM, PEQ, AND FST. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, PROB30S HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 70 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 91 70 95 73 / 30 10 10 10
DRYDEN 94 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 69 94 70 / 40 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 81 65 85 68 / 50 10 10 10
HOBBS 90 68 95 70 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA 81 60 87 61 / 60 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 71 95 71 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 90 71 95 72 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 91 70 96 72 / 20 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95
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