854
FXUS64 KMAF 202328
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
MAINLY FAVORING THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS OF CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES BECOMING VERY LOW (<15%).
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
COLORADO, WHILE CLOSER TO HOME, THE INVERTED TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES MEANDERING WEST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST, AND THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THAT SAID, FOR THE BETTER PART OF A WEEK,
NBM HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY (TOO
MUCH PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE?), AND MODEL CERTAINTY SUGGESTS THIS
TREND IS CONTINUING. THUS, WE'VE WARMED THINGS UP A BIT IN THE
SHORT TERM. EVEN SO, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD COME IN RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE GUADALUPES.
TONIGHT, THE LLJ WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 30 KTS, AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS TO COOL WITHIN ~ 2-4 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING MOST LOCATIONS,
BUT COULD PERSIST ON OUR WESTERN FRINGES OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FARTHER WEST INTO
ARIZONA, ALLOWING THICKNESSES TO INCREASE, AND TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP 4-6 F. CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE NOSES SOUTH BACK INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S, IF NOT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER DUE TO
HIGHS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERSISTS IN SHOWING MID TO
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT HIGHS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH MID-WEEK IN
THE 90F-95F RANGE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, 95F-100F ALONG THE PECOS
RIVER, NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND PRESIDIO VALLEY, WITH
105F-110F READINGS FOR THE BIG BEND. FORTUNATELY, AS THE UPPER LOW
AND ITS HUMID CORE DISSIPATES/DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
ITS INFLUENCE WANES, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DROP
BELOW THE 65F-70F RANGE AND PWATS TO DROP BELOW THE 1.10" TO 1.20"
RANGE. THERE WILL STILL BE A <15% CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
OR TWO DUE TO LESS PREDICTABLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FORMATION
INTERACTING WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN, DESPITE THE LARGE
SCALE SINKING AND WARMING/DRYING MOTION FROM THE RIDGE LARGELY
SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES. 100F-105F READINGS BUILDS FOR MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS APART FROM THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN
STOCKTON PLATEAU AFTER MID-WEEK AS RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, WHILE HIGHS RISE TO 105F-110F FOR THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND
110F-115F FOR THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, ANYONE OUTDOORS AND INSIDE
VEHICLES WILL WANT TO EXERCISE PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS, AND
IF POSSIBLE, AVOID SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART
OF THE DAY, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND REMAIN IN AIR CONDITIONED
BUILDINGS TO AVOID HEAT STRESS. LOWS RISE FROM THE 65F-70F RANGE,
60F-65F HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 70F-75F
RANGE, 65F-70F HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TAKE LONGER TO COOL
OFF.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WEST
OF ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CNM AND HOB TERMINALS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, OPTED TO NOT IMPLEMENT THESE CIGS FOR
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 98 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 73 101 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 97 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 65 87 68 90 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 68 98 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 60 89 62 91 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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