331
FXUS64 KMAF 211109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- RAIN CHANCES PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN/
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OF
CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD TODAY AND WILL CONFINE RAIN
CHANCES TO ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES MOVE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
MANY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN COOLER
IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST
BY TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES MOVE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. MIDLAND MAY SEE ITS FIRST 100F DAY SINCE JULY 4TH.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
UPPER RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE THEN STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
EXPANDS TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT SHALL DOMINATE MOST OF OUR REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. HIGHS LOOK TO
REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN MOST AFTERNOONS. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND THIS
WEEKEND, WHERE HIGHS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 110-115 DEGREES. LOWS
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/
STORMS NEAR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TS NOT INCLUDED
WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
IMPACTED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 73 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 96 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 99 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 96 71 98 73 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 85 68 89 69 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS 97 71 99 73 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 88 63 91 62 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 96 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 96 73 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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