695
FXUS64 KMAF 222233
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY ONWARD, WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. PERSISTENT HEAT WILL PRESENT AN
INCREASING RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- LOW (<20%) RAIN CHANCES BECOME CONFINED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TOP OUT AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-TO-MID
90S IN AND AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MAINTAINED FOR FAR WESTERN REACHES OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS (NEARING 80 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE), WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GENERALLY, THURSDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER OVERALL. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BORDEN, HOWARD,
MITCHELL, AND SCURRY COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GIVEN
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105 DEGREES IN THOSE
COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS, A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO GENERATE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. MORE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEPICT THIS SOLUTION, THOUGH AT THIS TIME OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (< 20%). LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN TONIGHT'S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR THURSDAY'S OVERALL,
AND AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE DEEMED NECESSARY IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. THIS WEEKEND, THICKNESSES OVER OUR AREA DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, SO TEMPERATURES
TICK DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO RELATIVE TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT
BEING SAID, MOST LOCATIONS STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND
AT/JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (LOW-TO-MID 90S IN AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN). BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES START TO
TREND BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AGAIN.
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE
NIL. THAT BEING SAID, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ALSO DEPICT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN SATURDAY
THANKS TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (10-20%) AT THIS TIME.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NIL, BUT A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD IS EXPECTED
LATE MORNING THURSDAY, W/BASES ~ 6-7 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 79 103 78 103 / 0 20 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 102 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 78 103 78 100 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 74 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 64 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 78 102 79 101 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 77 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BORDEN-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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