548
FXUS64 KMAF 231016
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ONWARD, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. PERSISTENT HEAT WILL
PRESENT AN INCREASING RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW TO NONE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE HEAT IS BACK! WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS, AND SPANNING THE SOUTHERN CONUS
FROM COAST TO COAST. KMAF HIT 101 F YESTERDAY...THE FIRST TRIPLE-
DIGIT DAY SINCE INDEPENDENCE DAY. FOR THOSE WHO PREFER WARMER
WEATHER, THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TODAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST A LITTLE, INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND ADDING A DEGREE OR SO TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH, FINISHING
THE AFTERNOON ~ 7-9 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR
CUSTOMERS IN THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING HILLS, PRIVY TO HIGHEST
DEWPOINTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PUSHING 105 F, AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THEM. AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN, IN BETTER DEWPOINTS.
TONIGHT, A 30 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPING OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS UNSEASONABLY WARM, AROUND 8-10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS EVEN FARTHER WEST, W/THE LREF
CENTERING IT SSW OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THE WILL SHIFT THE HEAT WEST,
AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AREAS EAST MAY SEE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL WARM. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE CHINATIS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER BELOW AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES THE NORM WITHIN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE'S CENTER WILL HOVER BETWEEN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SUNDAY
ONWARD, UPPER RIDING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALOFT. INCREASING
HEIGHTS BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO LIE ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT NEAR 105 DEGREES MOST AFTERNOONS NEAR THE PECOS RIVER,
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES (UP TO 115 DEGREES IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND). GIVEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF PERSISTENTLY HOT CONDITIONS, HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS WILL REACH THE UPPER
90S MOST AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY FALL TO THE 70S EACH
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE NM AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL, BUT A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED EARLY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 8-9 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 103 77 102 76 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 103 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 101 77 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 94 71 95 71 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS 102 75 103 73 / 0 10 0 10
MARFA 94 66 96 64 / 0 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 102 78 101 76 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 102 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 103 78 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR BORDEN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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