781
FXUS64 KMAF 231836
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
136 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERSISTENT HEAT WILL PRESENT AN
INCREASING RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN LOW (10-20%) TO NONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO CONTINUE TO BAKE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY FOR BORDEN, SCURRY, MITCHELL, AND
HOWARD COUNTIES, WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK WILL BE COMMONPLACE (LOW-TO-MID 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY DIP DOWN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS,
AS WELL AS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHER SOUTH. DCAPE BETWEEN 1000-
1500 J/KG SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. BY FRIDAY, HOTTER TEMPERATURES SHIFT MORE TOWARDS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES FOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS ACROSS THE
AREA STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND AT OR JUST ABOVE 100
DEGREES, BUT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES (AROUND 105 DEGREES) WILL BE
FOUND IN EDDY COUNTY (WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED) AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S,
ALBEIT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER GENERALLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR/WEST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (10-15% CHANCES). DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TOMORROW EVENING AS WELL (10-30%).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER TO OUR WEST BY SATURDAY,
YIELDING HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY'S. HOWEVER, TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES BECOME CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS, WITH MID-TO-
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND HIGHER TERRAIN (THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW) SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH. SUNDAY
AND BEYOND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS TO RETURN, WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS ONCE
AGAIN. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER LOOK TO SEE READINGS
NEAR 105 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHEREAS
FOLKS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD SEE READINGS TOP OUT BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. BE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS UNDER SHADE IF YOU MUST BE
OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME!
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
MAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 102 76 99 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 104 76 100 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN 79 99 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 78 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 96 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 76 103 73 98 / 0 0 20 0
MARFA 67 96 63 93 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 79 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 79 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 80 103 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BORDEN-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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