304
FXUS64 KMAF 071138
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL KEEP POPS
VERY LOW IN THE 10-20% OVER FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION GIVEN SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND UP TO 105 DEGREES ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT COUPLE OF MODELS/CAMS DO TRY TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST BASIN LATE
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS VERY LOW, SO WE ONLY HAVE POPS AROUND 10% INDICATED
OVER THESE AREAS WITH NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST
WITH THIS PACKAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION UNDER THIS FEATURE. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU/BIG BEND, BUT POPS REMAIN VERY
LOW AT 10% OR LESS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN HOT WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS
AND THE GULF COAST REGION. HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
OR MARFA PLATEAU. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE (GENERALLY 30-50%) BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OVER THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE MARFA PLATEAU
AND BIG BEND, WHILE POPS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN
20% OR LESS. EXPECT THE AUGUST HEAT TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY. A FEW PLACES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
MAY TOP OUT BETWEEN 103-108 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT BY THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 73 99 72 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 99 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 72 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 92 68 91 67 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 98 70 98 69 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 91 62 91 61 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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