718
FXUS64 KMAF 080540
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SE NM. AN MCV IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. THESE MAY SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINTS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF
CAMS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN NM THIS EVENING, THEN SWEEPING SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATING
NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE, SOME RAINFALL
MAY REACH SE NM, BUT WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT CAMS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION, THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (<20%) OVER SE
NM THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING IS
NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AS A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO APPEAR
ON RADAR IMAGERY. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG, WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND EAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL, LOW (10%) RAIN CHANCES
TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S (MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE
RIVER VALLEYS). SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS AGAIN FALL TO THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF AN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHALL
HOVER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND AND DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. UNTIL
THEN, THE FORECAST REMAINS HOT AND DRY FOR MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER EACH
PROGRESSIVE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY RANGING WITHIN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH JUST SHY OF 110 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PRIMARILY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY EVENING CURRENTLY FEATURES
RAIN CHANCES OF 10-30% OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE EASTWARD THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHALL COOL TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EDDY AND LEA NM COUNTIES AS
OF 0530Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BEHIND THIS PASSING FEATURE
AROUND KCNM AND POSSIBLY KHOB THROUGH 07-08Z. A VERY BRIEF
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VFR IS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 73 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 96 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 91 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 98 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 61 91 62 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 73 97 73 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 73 97 73 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page