200
FXUS64 KMAF 082311
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10% TO 25%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WITH MAIN RISKS BEING STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PATCHY DUST.
- DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND HAZARDOUS HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND A
SUBSEQUENT COOLING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY,
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION THAT SUPPRESSES MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT FOCUS MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL TX INTO WEST TX WILL ALLOW LOW (10% TO 25%) SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO DEVELOP FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TODAY. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME HIGH- RES CAMS ARE DEPICTING
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. DCAPE AT
LEAST 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS KICKING
UP PATCHY BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER, PWAT AROUND 1" AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES/LOW RH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 95F-100F
RANGE, 100F-105F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND PARTS OF THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS AS WELL AS NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND PRESIDIO VALLEY
INTO BIG BEND, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN IN THE 90F-95F
RANGE. WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50F-60F RANGE AND ALLOWING
FOR EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 65F-70F RANGE FOR COOLER LOWLAND SPOTS, 70F-75F
RANGE WARMER LOWLAND SPOTS, AND 60F-65F FOR MARFA PLATEAU AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS.
TOMORROW, SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH NEAR ZERO POPS AS
MID- LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PROVIDING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WHILE LOWS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TONIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS
CORE OF RIDGING REDEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN IN STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS THE CORE OF RIDGING REDEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR MONDAY, HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND ARE
FORECAST, WITH EXCEPTION OF 105F-110F READING FOR THE BIG BEND,
BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHS RISE INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON
PLATEAU, AND SE NM PLAINS, WHILE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 105F-110F
RANGE ALONG PARTS OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE 95F-100F
RANGE EVEN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH BOTH HIGHS AND HEAT
INDICES RISING CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING HAZARDOUS HEAT CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
DAVIS AND CHINATI MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BIG BEND. HOWEVER, AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE (EVIDENCED BY PWATS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 1.00" TO
1.25" RANGE IN ENSEMBLES) AND A STRENGTHENING AND EASTWARD
DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE TROUGH, LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 35%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO PRESIDIO VALLEY. LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 35%) RAIN
CHANCES EXPAND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON
PLATEAU AND BIG BEND BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING PUSHES HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE
100F-105F RANGE IN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF THE LOWLANDS AND 90F-95F
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY, 95F-100F LOWLANDS AND
85F-905F RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE 65F-75F RANGE FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 60F-65F RANGE FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AS AMOUNT OF
OVERNIGHT COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY
RETURN MOISTURE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STORM COVERAGE/TIMING EACH
DAY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK NEXT ALSO REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD LATE SUNDAY MORNING
EVERYWHERE BUT KCNM, W/BASES ~ 5-6 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 98 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 73 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 67 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 61 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 97 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 96 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 72 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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