516
FXUS64 KMAF 091135
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS
HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED LOCALIZED WELCOME RAINFALL AND BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED JUST WEST OF BIG LAKE SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. PRETTY MUCH ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF/
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU OR SOUTHERN BIG BEND. THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN 10% OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS TODAY, AND ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER MOST OF OUR REGION, EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
PRETTY MUCH A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GULF COAST STATES BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT OUR AREA
WILL STILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 100-
105 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE TRANS PECOS AND PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH UP TO 105-
110 DEGREES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR VERY ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND/OR SOUTHERN BIG BEND.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
STRONGER. UPPER-RIDGING MAY TEND TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND, SO STORM CHANCES MAY BE LOWER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES. SUMMER TIME HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
S/SE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 72 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 99 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 91 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 63 92 64 / 0 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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