704
FXUS64 KMAF 092234
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DRIER WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY WEEK THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE FROM LOW (10% TO 20%) EARLY IN THE WEEK
TO LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 40%) BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
A MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROVIDING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE
DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S F, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RISE INTO THE 95F-100F RANGE, 100F-105F RANGE ALONG PARTS OF
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY ON THE SE NM PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG
BEND, AND 90F-95F FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ALSO AGAIN
FALL INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65F-70F HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TOMORROW,
A WARMING TREND RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE ACROSS MORE OF
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SE NM PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 105F-110F RANGE FOR THE BIG BEND.
INCREASED HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW
(<10%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER, HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN.
LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A
WARMING TREND SETS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MORE DETAILS
ON THAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AS CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION, A WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS MOST LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
RISE INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE SE NM PLAINS INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN,
APPROACHING THE 95F- 100F RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND UP TO
110F FOR THE BIG BEND. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE
BIG BEND GIVEN HEAT INDICES ALSO UP TO 110F FORECAST FOR THE BIG
BEND. EVEN IN REGIONS NOT MEETING HAZARDOUS HEAT CRITERIA,
EVERYONE IS STILL ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE PROPER HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS (DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, STAY OUT OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT
DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, POSTPONE ANY PHYSICAL ACTIVITY
TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING IF POSSIBLE, AND DO NOT LEAVE PETS OR
PEOPLE UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES). SIMILAR TO MONDAY, INCREASED
HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALLOW
FOR LOW (10% TO 20%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY TO TUESDAY,
BUT FEATURE THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, AND
MID TO UPPER 90S F FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN. LOW (10% TO 20%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF
TERRAIN. HOWEVER AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
AND DURATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FEATURES A COOLING TREND AND
INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW THAT STRENGTHENS LEE TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING NEAR
SURFACE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO
40%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. INCREASED CLOUDS LIMITING
DIURNAL HEATING BRING HIGHS THURSDAY BACK DOWN INTO THE 95F-100F
RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSIST FOR
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRUSH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE FURTHER DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
STORM COVERAGE, BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND
BELOW THE 90S F RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CONTINUED LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 40%) SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER ARE
FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER (45% TO 55%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
MARFA PLATEAU. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE APPARENT IN GRIDS
FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT THIS
MAY INCREASE IN COMING DAYS. LOWS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK DESPITE THE MORE HUMID AND RAINY MONSOONAL PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE BUT KINK, W/BASES ~ 4.5-10 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 100 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 74 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 97 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 67 92 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 69 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 91 63 94 / 0 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 99 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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