077
FXUS64 KMAF 100708
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED (10-15%) AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG
BEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED (30-50%) IN
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO
LATEMAINLYWEEK, ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG
BEND WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW POPS
(10-15%) OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
BOTH AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY, EXCEPT FOR READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
FOR MOST EXCEPT 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO TREND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 104 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS,
PERMIAN BASIN, AND TRANS PECOS. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S, WHILE READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REACH UP
TO 103-108 DEGREES. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS WEEK, PLEASE EXERCISE
CAUTION AND STAY HYDRATED AND IN THE SHADE IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SO DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 105-110 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, SO THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS (30-50%) WILL BE OVER THE TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU, THOUGH
AT LEAST ISOLATED (10-20% CHANCE) STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY DRY WHERE SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE GREATER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE
STILL LOOKS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 102 FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
W/BASES ~ 4.5-5 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 92 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 64 93 65 / 10 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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