002
FXUS64 KMAF 110307
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1007 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED (10-20%) AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, BIG
BEND, AND STOCKTON PLATEAU.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE RIDGE KEEPS HOT
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER TODAY'S. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO
100S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS TO OVERLAY MUCH OF SE NM, THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS, AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH UP TO 107
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED,
PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HOT CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS
ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE RIDGE PROMOTES DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE FLOW
AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
SHALL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
FAVORED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, MAINLY NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PERCOLATING NEAR FORT STOCKTON AND
THE DAVIS'. GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW (<20%)
RAIN CHANCES SHALL AGAIN OVERLAY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THE MARFA AND
STOCKTON PLATEAUS, AND THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO END UP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TICK DOWN AFTER WEDNESDAY (WHEN HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON). BY THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, AND TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PWATS
NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.25-1.50 INCHES). THIS, COUPLED WITH
PASSING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, LEADS TO INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. AS PER USUAL, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN/NEAR THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS (30-60%), WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS-PECOS (10-30%). HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY THANKS TO THEIR RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND, WHICH RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES
BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GETTING PUSHED
TOWARDS OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN GENERALLY LIGHT
RETURN FLOW, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
CU FIELD LATE MORNING TUESDAY, W/BASES ~ 4.5-5 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 103 74 103 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 100 75 100 / 10 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 68 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 70 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 64 93 65 93 / 10 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 75 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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