957
FXUS64 KMAF 110716
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 216 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, THE MARFA AND STOCKTON PLATEAUS, AND PORTIONS OF THE
BIG BEND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EAST AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGHS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS REACHING BETWEEN 98-103 DEGREES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE TRANS PECOS AND MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE READINGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RANGE BETWEEN
102-108 DEGREES. UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(10-40% COVERAGE) OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA AND STOCKTON
PLATEAUS, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE
WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT/ABOVE NORMAL OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A FEW DEGREES
LOWER BY FRIDAY. EVEN SO, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND UP TO 102-108 DEGREES ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF OUR REGION IN THE S-SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE LATEST FORECAST
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY GOOD (30-60%) CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE
MARFA/STOCKTON PLATEAUS WHERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BOTH DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE REST OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE LATE
THIS WEEK. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND BECOME
STRONGER OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM CHANCES DECREASE AND MAINLY BECOME CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY-MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN GENERALLY LIGHT
RETURN FLOW, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A
CU FIELD LATE MORNING TUESDAY, W/BASES ~ 4.5-5 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 103 74 103 75 / 0 0 10 20
DRYDEN 100 76 102 77 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 75 101 75 / 10 10 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS 93 70 93 69 / 10 10 10 30
HOBBS 100 72 102 72 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA 92 65 93 65 / 20 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 101 75 103 76 / 0 0 10 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page