223
FXUS64 KMAF 111830
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, THE MARFA/STOCKTON PLATEAUS, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS
YIELDS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERTURES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR MOST, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERTURES CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND MANY
SPOTS SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGS CHANCES (10-40%) OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA/STOCKTON
PLATEAU, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, SINKING MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE
KEEPS THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERTURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THOUGH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BECOME CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE BIG BEND ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-60%) INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE CHANCES EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO TO THE RIO GRANDE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (50-70%) OVER
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU. DRY CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. LONG-
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE LATEST
FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND BECOME MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. GUSTS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 74 103 75 100 / 0 10 20 10
DRYDEN 76 102 77 101 / 0 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 75 101 75 100 / 10 30 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 70 93 69 90 / 10 10 30 20
HOBBS 72 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA 65 93 65 92 / 20 20 20 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 101 76 100 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 75 101 76 99 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 75 103 76 101 / 0 10 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93
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