548
FXUS64 KMAF 120529
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-40%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, THE MARFA/STOCKTON PLATEAUS, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REST
OF THE REGION.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS
YIELDS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERTURES THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR MOST, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERTURES CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE RIVER
VALLEYS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND MANY
SPOTS SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGS CHANCES (10-40%) OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA/STOCKTON
PLATEAU, AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, SINKING MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE
KEEPS THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERTURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THOUGH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BECOME CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE BIG BEND ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-60%) INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE CHANCES EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO TO THE RIO GRANDE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (50-70%) OVER
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU. DRY CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. LONG-
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE LATEST
FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND BECOME MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. S/SE WINDS UP TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY
08-09Z. ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TRANS PECOS, INCLUDING
NEAR KFST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 74 100 73 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN 101 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 100 74 98 73 / 20 10 40 20
GUADALUPE PASS 91 68 89 68 / 0 20 10 10
HOBBS 101 72 99 71 / 0 10 10 20
MARFA 92 65 91 64 / 20 10 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 76 99 75 / 0 10 0 10
ODESSA 100 76 99 75 / 0 10 10 10
WINK 102 75 100 74 / 0 10 10 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21
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