711
FXUS64 KMAF 130654
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED (30-50%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, UPPER TRANS
PECOS, MARFA AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND REGION TODAY.
OTHER ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH DAY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.2-1.6")
AND AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, MARFA AND STOCKTON PLATEAUS, AND BIG BEND REGION. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE (30-50%) WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
FROM THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 104 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 109 DEGREES ALONG PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA, EXCEPT IN THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALSO SHIFTS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-50%) AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
OTHERWISE REMAIN HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES OVER MOST PLACES, EXCEPT LOWER 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN 102-108 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE/BUILD
WESTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA THIS
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BECOME VERY FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RANGE
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES FOR MOST EACH DAY, WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS AND 102-108 DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE 70S OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. FOR NOW OUR CONFIDENCE WAS LIMITED TO
INCLUDING PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA AT KPEQ AND KFST AFTER 20-21Z
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 102 76 101 74 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 74 100 73 / 10 10 20 30
DRYDEN 102 77 100 75 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 74 98 73 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 30 30
HOBBS 100 72 99 71 / 10 10 10 20
MARFA 92 64 91 63 / 40 20 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 100 76 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 100 76 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 101 75 100 75 / 20 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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