848
FXUS64 KMAF 131835
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (40-50%) IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER CHANCES
(20-30%) ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH DAY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TRANS-PECOS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR THE AXIS
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FEATURE, AS WELL AS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-50%)
WILL BE IN/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, WITH LOWER
CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN
(MAINLY THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS), THE TRANS-PECOS, THE BIG BEND, AND
THE PRESIDIO VALLEY. EASTERNMOST COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY
DUE TO THEIR RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE, THOUGH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED, SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
90S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES (LOW 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). LOWS
TONIGHT END UP IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SURFACE TROUGHING HANGS AROUND FRIDAY, BUT THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD (THOUGH THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST). AS A RESULT, THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT (AND THEREFORE POPS)
ARE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS WELL. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES (40-50%) WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WITH 10-
30% CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS-
PECOS, THE STOCKTON PLATEAU, THE BIG BEND, AND THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
(WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO SNEAKING INTO THE FAR WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN). HIGHS END UP IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AGAIN, THOUGH 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE CONFINED TO
THE RIVER VALLEYS.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADING TO THE WEST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND BECOMING DOMINANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST. THOUGH SPOTS
ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. COOLER TEMPERTURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MAYBE SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
BECOME LESS LIKELY, BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF QUESTION. OTHERWISE,
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
SINKING MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE INHIBITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW
TEMPERTURES CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S
ELSEWHERE.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT GUSTS (MAINLY IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE). WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, AND MORE SOUTHERLY OVERALL. COULD NOT
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ANY ONE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SO INCLUDED PROB30S AT ALL SITES FOR -TSRA. HOWEVER, THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT FST, PEQ, INK, AND HOB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 101 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 74 100 73 99 / 10 20 30 10
DRYDEN 77 100 75 98 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 98 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 69 90 68 90 / 10 30 30 30
HOBBS 72 99 71 97 / 10 10 20 0
MARFA 64 91 63 90 / 20 40 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 99 74 97 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 76 99 74 96 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 75 100 75 98 / 10 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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