993
FXUS64 KMAF 281111
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
NEAR THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
THE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THURSDAY'S, REACHING THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS WITHIN
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS, REACHING UP TO 106 DEGREES WITHIN THE BIG BEND. TEMPERATURES
COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGING BUILDING
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND. MOST CAN EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. HOWEVER, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND EDDY AND REEVES COUNTIES. A PASSING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
NEAR THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS ARE LOW (10-20%). MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN
INVERTED "V" SHAPE AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG,
SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE
STRONG WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED TO RESIDE NEAR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION,
LEAVING OUR AREA ON ITS WEST SIDE. WITH RIDGING BEING OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK WILL MAINLY STAY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, EDDY COUNTY, THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL TO THE 60S IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE 70S ARE
FORECAST GENERALLY EVERYWHERE ELSE. RAIN CHANCES MAINLY LOOK SLIM
TO NONE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 73 100 73 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 100 74 99 74 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 90 69 91 69 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 96 70 98 70 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 91 61 91 61 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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