499
FXUS64 KMAF 281857
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
NEAR THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
PERSISTENCE RULES. WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS, DICTATING A RATHER
PEDESTRIAN FORECAST FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. W/THE
OFFSET RIDGE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS
MOST LOCATIONS, AROUND 6-8 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF THE PECOS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT, MINIMUMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S, IF NOT A DEGREE
WARMER DUE TO A 30 KT LLJ AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO THE AREA, INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO TO THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ASPECT, MINIMIZING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL AVERAGE ~ 7-9 F ABOVE NORMAL, JUST A SKOSH
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. GRIDS LOOK DRY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AFTER MOVING OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETS
UP OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND TEMPERATURES
AT/ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL MAINLY BE FOUND IN AND AROUND THE RIVER
VALLEYS. LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, WITH 60S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE "BEST" RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) WILL BE IN AND
AROUND THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY THE PRODUCT OF UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CU FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY, W/BASES ~ 6-10 KFT AGL. NO CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 97 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 70 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 60 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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