575
FXUS64 KMAF 290745
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- LOW (~10%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
NEAR THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS SHALL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE RIDGE KEEPS OUR
WEATHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND EDDY COUNTY SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LOOKS TO BE AVOIDED. LOWS TONIGHT COOL TO THE 60S (MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID 70S. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
AND WEST OF THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN
BY A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES OVER THESE
AREAS ARE LOW (~10%). DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN A
RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN, CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD LOOK COOKIE-CUTTER. EACH AFTERNOON SHALL FEATURE
HIGHS RANGING WITHIN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
WILL TEND TO FAVOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
THOSE IN AND AROUND THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS EACH NIGHT COOL INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
PECOS MOST AFTERNOONS. THESE DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW AND TRANSIENT DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 72 102 73 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 99 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 91 69 93 69 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 61 93 61 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 74 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10
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