367
FXUS64 KMAF 291805
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 5%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, EVEN OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
- REMAINING VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING TO THE
15% TO 25% RANGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE SE NM
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING CENTERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND,
MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS MORE THAN VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 5%) DAYTIME SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO
THE 95F-100F RANGE, 90F-95F RANGE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
100F-105F ALONG THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY,
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A LLJ
NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65F-70F
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND FOOTHILLS OF
THE MARFA PLATEAU, WITH 60F-65F READINGS FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU.
TOMORROW AS CORE OF RIDGING CENTERS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE ACROSS A WIDER STRETCH OF THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU,
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND RIO GRANDE BASIN, WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE 105F-110F RANGE FOR THE BIG BEND. WHILE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW (LESS THAN 60F-65F FOR MOST), EVERYONE IS STILL
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS (LIMIT TIME
SPENT OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN SHADE WHEN OUTDOORS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND DO NOT
LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN LOCKED VEHICLES). LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM TONIGHT, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT BENEATH THE LLJ. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
DEVELOPMENT OF MID TO UPPER RIDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS OVER TIME EARLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE, AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING UNDER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
"RING OF FIRE" OF PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALOFT INTERACTING WITH HUMID, UPSLOPE
SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF LEE TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL NM INTO
WESTERNMOST TX. HIGHS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY,
ALTHOUGH WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY, OVER THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH 105F-110F READINGS EACH DAY
FOR THE BIG BEND. EVERYWHERE ELSE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
90F-100F RANGE, BUT EVERYONE IS STILL ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER
HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF OUTDOORS OR IN VEHICLES. LOW (15% TO
25%) AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE APPARENT OVER THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, FURTHER
INFORMATION REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE IS NOT CLEAR, BUT NO
MAJOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED. LOWS REMAIN SIMILAR
TO THE SHORT TERM WITH NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE IN SIGHT OFFERING
COOLER AND/OR MORE RAINY WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW,
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CU
FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, W/BASES ~ 4.5-11 KFT AGL. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 73 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 69 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 61 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 74 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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