811
FXUS64 KMAF 300825
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOST AFTERNOONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CORE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW THE RIDGE, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS THE REGION. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE MORE PROMINENT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, EDDY
COUNTY, AND AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY, AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
BECOMES LESS EXPANSIVE. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. RAIN CHANCES IN THIS AREA ARE ROUGHLY 10% THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN BECOME 10-30% MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS A TOUCH.
MEANWHILE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEN RETROGRADES TOWARD THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS LEAVES OUR REGION MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EACH DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SHALL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST BELOW THIS
RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE WITHIN THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS BEYOND THE CENTURY
MARK WILL TEND TO BE FOUND WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL
TO THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TAP FOR
EVERYONE ELSE. ALTHOUGH SEPTEMBER 1ST IS THE START OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
FALL, SUMMER-LIKE HEAT SHALL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY LOOK SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER MOST AFTERNOONS.
THESE DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 93 70 92 69 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 93 62 92 63 / 0 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 101 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...10
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