639
FXUS64 KMAF 301805
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
- CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH INCREASED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES EACH DAY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CORE OF RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY, ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE SINKING AND DRYING MOTION WITH ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN (LIKELY CONFINED TO REGIONS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IF THEY DO AT ALL OCCUR) AND
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 100F-105F
RANGE ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS,
STOCKTON PLATEAU, NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90F-100F RANGE ELSEWHERE
APART FROM 105F-110F FOR THE BIG BEND. WHILE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET ANYWHERE, EVERYONE IS STILL ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS (LIMIT TIME SPENT OUTDOORS
DURING HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE
IF OUTDOORS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND DO NOT LEAVE PEOPLE OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN LOCKED VEHICLES). SOUTHEAST WINDS, INCREASING
WITH SPEED INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENTLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT UNDER A LLJ
NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT (70F-75F RANGE FOR MOST, 65F- 70F NORTHERN LEA COUNTY
INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
60F-65F FOR MARFA PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS).
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PASSING DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD ON
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN "RING OF FIRE" THAT PROVIDE LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALOFT INTERACT WITH CONTINUED HUMID, UPSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW. POPS INCREASE TO LOW (15% TO 30%), WHILE HIGH-RES
CAMS INDICATE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. DCAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG, DRY MID-LEVELS AND PWAT NEAR 1.00" SUGGEST A
LIMITED FLASH FLOODING RISK IN ANY STORMS, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL. HIGHS COOL SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS CORE OF RIDGING AND
GREATEST SINKING AND DRYING MOTION SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT ALSO COOL TO SIMILAR LEVELS TO TONIGHT UNDER A LLJ NORTHEAST
OF THE MARFA PLATEAU THAT PROVIDES INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE
PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET DURING THE
CONTINUED STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER,
EVERYONE IS STILL ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF MID TO
UPPER RIDGING, UNDERNEATH PASSING DISTURBANCES PROVIDING LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT NEAR SURFACE
HUMID, UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS KEEPS LOW (20% TO 30%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME, NO
MAJOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH STORMS, AND MAIN
RISKS IN STRONGEST STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
PATCHY BLOWING DUST, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE SEPTEMBER 1ST BEING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
START OF AUTUMN, NO MAJOR COOLING PATTERN OR EVEN A MORE ZONAL MID
TO UPPER AIR PATTERN IS APPARENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IN MODELS.
AN EXPANSIVE MID TO UPPER RIDGE IN FACT LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS THEREAFTER
REMAIN MURKY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF THE MID TO UPPER AIR
PATTERN AND THE TROPICS-MID LATITUDE UPPER AIR WAVE INTERACTIONS
TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY SIGN OF RIDGING BREAKING DOWN BEYOND THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW,
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP LIMITED CU
FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, W/BASES ~ 5-11 KFT AGL. NO
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 70 92 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 71 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 92 63 91 / 0 10 10 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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