861
FXUS64 KMAF 310752
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION, HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
DESPITE THE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT, RIDGING WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY
WEATHER MAKER TO START THE WORK WEEK, THUS HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST. MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS ARE PROGGED TO WARM BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. TONIGHT, LOWS
COOL TO THE 60S WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BOTH AFTERNOONS SHALL ALSO FEATURE A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER. THE BEST ODDS WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THIS COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE, MOST
LOCATIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEAR 100F
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL WITH MOST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING INTO THE 60S. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MOVE DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES AND REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. IT DOES ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW OVERALL, BUT VERY
ISOLATED SPOTS MAY END UP WITH AN AFTERNOON/EVENING DOWNPOUR LEADING
TO HIGHER AMOUNTS.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONTINUES FOR ALL SITES. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY AROUND 20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 73 100 73 / 10 0 10 10
DRYDEN 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 92 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS 97 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 63 91 64 / 20 10 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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