763
FXUS64 KMAF 010745
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 243 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOW (10-30%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE BROAD CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHIFT EVENTUALLY PLACES WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER HAVE A
LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/ STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST ODDS (~30%) SHALL FOCUS IN/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS COURTESY OF
UPSLOPE FLOW. SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING. WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN SEE THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SIMILAR LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER (10-20%).
MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
DESPITE TODAY BEING THE FIRST DAY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL FALL, UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OUR PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER. THUS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THOSE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN CAN EXPECT HIGHS BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS
(UP TO 105 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND). TONIGHT'S LOWS FALL
TO THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, 70S FOR MOST. TEMPERATURE WARM UP
FURTHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LOOK TO ENCOMPASS
THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, MUCH OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
EDDY COUNTY, AND MORE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SHALL BE AVOIDED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST. BY THE WEEKEND, THAT SAME RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO "COOL OFF" BY ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
THIS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE FOR MOST BETWEEN REACHING NEAR 95F
RATHER THAN NEAR 100F+ THAT HAS BEEN SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND BIG BEND. WITH NO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSISTENCE TO
SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS, A MORE SUMMER-LIKE, MONSOON PATTERN
RETURNS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RECURRING MOST
AFTERNOONS. THOUGH WE ARE NOW TECHNICALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICAL FALL,
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 73 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN 99 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 73 99 74 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 90 70 91 71 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS 96 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 90 63 91 64 / 20 10 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 96 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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