383
FXUS64 KMAF 011943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DISCERNIBLE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND INTO THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU WHERE WE
WILL KEEP POPS BETWEEN 30-40%. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.1-1.3 INCHES) AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR READINGS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH REMNANTS OF TS EDOUARD LIFTING INTO EAST TEXAS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE STAYS WELL TO OUR
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-30%) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
CWA AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES AGAIN MOST FAVORED IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU VICINITY. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO AROUND 103 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY-MONDAY WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
IN THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES, EXCEPT 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS.
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, BUT
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL
IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 99 74 100 75 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 73 99 75 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 90 70 91 72 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS 96 71 98 73 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 90 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 96 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55
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