073
FXUS64 KMAF 021114
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
(10-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH OUR REGION RESIDING
ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE, STREAMING OVER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR REGION. THIS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SE NM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. AT PRESENT, SHOWERS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SE NM, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-30%) SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER AND PORTIONS OF SE NM. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHALL TEND TO
FAVOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERNMOST REACHES OF OUR REGION BOTH
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SHOULD ANY OF THESE STORMS BECOME STRONG,
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE 80-90 DEGREE RANGE WITHIN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MID TO UPPER 90S FOR ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE. LOW
100S ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
NE PERMIAN BASIN. THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES TICK UP A FEW DEGREES OVER
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.
HIGHS AT OR BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK LOOK TO EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS MORE
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, SE NM, AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND
ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 108 DEGREES. DESPITE THIS, HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE AVOIDED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS, AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO CHIHUAHUA. REMNANTS OF T.D. EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST, TOO FAR EAST TO INFLUENCE
CONDITIONS HERE IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A LARGE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE PACNW, EXTENDING DOWN THE WEST
COAST AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.S. MARIE INTO THE
REGION ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAEFS ENSEMBLES INCREASE PWATS OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA TO 2-3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
PLAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES DIMINISH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BACK WEST, ENDING UP OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST, IT WILL BE WEAK,
W/THICKNESSES FORECAST TO DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, W/HIGHS
AVERAGING 10-12 F ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN "COOL"
INTO NEXT WEEK, AMOUNTING TO ONLY 8-10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE WARMTH PERSISTS, BUT THE STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROUGH HINTS AT FINALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN OVERALL
LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT STORM LOCATIONS, PROB30S
HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 101 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 75 102 74 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 90 72 91 70 / 20 10 10 30
HOBBS 98 73 100 73 / 0 10 0 10
MARFA 91 65 92 64 / 30 10 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95
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